The violence and tension that surrounded the congress were widely interpreted as an attempt to reassert structural control at a time when grassroots loyalty seems to be shifting. Yet, the very aggression deployed to halt his momentum has underscored a deeper truth: dominance rooted in popularity cannot be dismantled through intimidation.
Tunji-Ojo’s political rise has not been accidental. From his tenure in the House of Representatives to his current stewardship at the Interior Ministry, his profile has steadily expanded. Visibility in governance, policy engagement and sustained interaction with constituents have strengthened his political capital. His influence is not confined to formal structures; it is reinforced by emotional connection and public resonance. That is the foundation of enduring dominance.
The ward congress episode highlighted a leadership style within the state that appears increasingly reliant on forceful consolidation rather than persuasive engagement. Reports of intimidation and violent clashes painted a troubling picture. Such tactics may momentarily disrupt opponents, but they do not erase popularity. On the contrary, they often reinforce the perception that one side commands affection while the other commands fear.
More significantly, the political calculation behind structural dominance has been weakened by the signing of the Electoral Act 2026 by Bola Ahmed Tinubu. With the abolition of indirect primaries and the adoption of direct primaries, the power to determine candidate emergence now rests with all card carrying party members. The era when control of ward executives guaranteed strategic advantage is fading.
This reform has effectively aligned legal structure with political reality. Where once a narrow circle of delegates could tilt the outcome, the broader membership now decides. In such a framework, organic support becomes decisive. The influence of a leader is measured not by control of a few, but by acceptance among many.
For Tunji-Ojo, whose dominance is widely perceived as grassroots driven, this shift strengthens rather than weakens his position. His political relevance is not dependent on manipulated delegate lists or enforced congress outcomes. It rests on continued engagement and visible public support. Under a direct primary system, that kind of legitimacy carries weight.
Interestingly, the recent developments appear to have further consolidated public confidence in his leadership. Many observers interpret the aggressive tactics of the opposing camp as signs of weakness rather than strength. Cowardly attacks and indirect confrontations rarely project authority; they often generate sympathy for the perceived target. In this instance, the violence has not diminished Tunji-Ojo’s standing. Instead, it has amplified the perception that his influence is substantial enough to provoke desperation.
At the national level, such stability under pressure reinforces institutional trust. Continued confidence in his capacity to manage responsibility without descending into retaliatory politics strengthens the perception of maturity in leadership. The absence of reactive aggression on his part contrasts sharply with the turbulence surrounding the congress.
The attempt to outpace his influence through structural aggression has therefore proven strategically flawed. Political dominance sustained by performance and connection is difficult to outrun. It cannot be neutralized by temporary displays of force. If anything, such displays magnify the contrast between coercive leadership and accepted leadership.
In Ondo State’s evolving political environment, the equation is changing. The new electoral framework favours openness over control and popularity over intimidation. Within that context, BTO’s political dominance appears less like a passing surge and more like a consolidating reality.
Power imposed may command silence. Power earned commands loyalty. And in the current dispensation, loyalty remains the stronger currency.
Director, The Spotlight
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